THE fertility rate among women may be declining, but thousands of classrooms must still be built annually to make room for new learners and replace aging educational facilities until 2040, according to the government’s think tank.
In a discussion paper published by the Philippine Institute and Development Studies (òòò½´«Ã½), a team of researchers led by Fellow Michael R.M. Abrigo estimated that 6,000 to 8,000 new classrooms need to be built over the next 15 years to address classroom deficits by 2040.
They estimated that at P3 million per classroom, this would amount to an investment of P18 billion to P24 billion in new classrooms per year. The òòò½´«Ã½ said this, however, within the ballpark of the government’s recent allocations for classroom construction.
“We document that a future with continuous low fertility presents an important tailwind to ease classroom congestion across the country, but headwinds from building obsolescence would require continuous infrastructure investments to address classroom supply deficits in the public school system,” òòò½´«Ã½ explained.
Given the resources needed, òòò½´«Ã½ recommended crafting of a long-term School Building Construction Masterplan to identify locations where classrooms are needed.
This needs assessment will consider supply and demand projections as well as building specifications that fit the terrain and climatic conditions of the areas where the buildings will be constructed.
The òòò½´«Ã½ said this can be complemented by activities such as funding prioritization, preconstruction activities, and building maintenance to facilitate planning.
“Ultimately, such interventions would not only require greater coordination and cooperation among concerned agencies, particularly DepEd [Department of Education], DPWH [Department of Public Works and Highways], and Neda [National Economic and Development Authority, now the Department of Economy, Planning and Development], but also the availability of skilled personnel to implement them,” òòò½´«Ã½ said.
However, the òòò½´«Ã½ researchers also said there are other options to building more classrooms. They recommended that government “hedge on the differential timing and spatial distribution of classroom congestion across grade levels.”
One stopgap measure is for schools with classroom deficits to share excess classrooms in nearby schools. This requires the compensation of schools with excess classrooms for the use of their facilities.
The researchers said public-private partnerships can also be explored in the construction of classrooms. This can be done through build-lease-transfer schemes or through education service contracting or voucher programs.
The government can also explore transport service schemes for students willing to enroll in uncongested but distant schools. This will ease congestion in nearby schools and maximize the use of available resources in other distant schools.
“The costs of these options need to be weighed relative to the benefits [they could] provide. Such analyses should include not only actual direct financial costs and benefits to government and households, but also the opportunity costs of alternatives to society at large,” òòò½´«Ã½ said.
The researchers estimated that if the number of existing classrooms in 2021 stays constant until 2040, remaining classroom deficits are expected to range between 58,000 and 81,000, depending on the fertility scenario.
However, if the building wear and tear in factored in because of infrastructure ageing, the numbers are significantly higher at around 100,000 at low fertility scenarios to 122,000 at high fertility scenarios.
The researchers pegged their assumptions on national level Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.7 percent for the low-fertility scenario; 1.9 percent for the medium scenario; and 2.1 percent for the high scenario. The country’s current TFR stands at 1.9 births per woman.
By 2040, the researchers expect about 2.2 million public Senior High School (SHS) enrollees; and for public junior high school (JHS), between 5.5 and 5.8 million, depending on the fertility scenario.
These are below the 2022 baseline public JHS and SHS enrollment at 7.3 million and 2.8 million students, respectively.
“Between 2022 and 2040, however, we expect total public high school enrollment to somewhat plateau with the expected increased enrollment in some areas, e.g. Quezon City and Basilan, offset by declining enrollment in others,” the researchers said.
In terms of total national public school enrollment in the elementary level, including kindergarten, the low fertility scenario would lead to a public enrollment of 10.5 million; while a high fertility scenario will lead to 12.8 million students enrolling.
This, the researchers said, is founded on a baseline enrollment scenario of 14 million in 2022. “We expect total public elementary school enrollment to decline further by 2060 across fertility scenarios, although some locations are projected to have public school enrollment higher by as much as half of baseline values in the high fertility scenario.”
Given this, the researchers said public school enrollments by level are expected to lead to a declining trend in total public school enrollment across regions until 2040.
It is estimated that the public school enrollment will be between 18.1 million at low-fertility scenarios and 21.1 million at high-fertility scenarios for the whole country by “endline,” from 24.1 million in 2022.
This trend, the researchers said, will likely continue until 2060 even in the high-fertility scenario. However, the situation in the BARMM may be different as there is a projected increase in public school enrollment by around a third of baseline public school enrollment figures.
