Rising global oil prices could push about 1.34 million Filipinos into poverty, based on a simulation of current oil price conditions in a policy note by the òòò½´«Ã½ (òòò½´«Ã½).
The estimate reflects the study’s “current scenario,” which assumes oil at USD 105 per barrel and a 35% pass-through to domestic prices. Under this setup, the national poverty rate is projected to rise from 13.2% in 2025 to 14.4%, reversing recent gains.
The findings come as separate òòò½´«Ã½ research shows that about 30% of Filipino households are vulnerable to falling into poverty—including segments of the middle class—highlighting how large parts of the population remain exposed to economic shocks.
The current oil price surge, however, presents a more immediate risk. The increase in poverty is expected to come largely from households just above the poverty line—the so-called “near poor”—who are most at risk of slipping into poverty as daily expenses rise.
òòò½´«Ã½ Senior Research Fellow Jose Ramon G. Albert said the impact cuts across all income groups, but the burden is not shared equally.
“Hindi pantay-pantay ang bigat ng epekto…ang pinaka-apektado…kahit na maliit ang epekto sa peso, ay ang mahihirap,” he said.
While higher-income households may lose more in peso terms, poorer families absorb the heavier blow because they spend most of their income on essentials and have little to no savings.
“Ang mahihirap, lalo pang humihirap. Pero ang malapit sa poverty line, sila ang mas epektado—sila ang babagsak,” Albert said.
The study estimates that poor households could lose as much as 16.2% of their annual income in real purchasing power, compared to only 3.4% among the richest households.
Even families without cars or direct fuel expenses are affected, as rising oil prices drive up the cost of food and other basic goods.
“Pag tumaas ang presyo ng langis, tataas rin ang presyo ng bigas, isda, karne, gulay—lahat ng mga pangunahing pangangailangan,” he said.
The impact is stronger in rural areas, where poverty is projected to rise from 18.5% to 20%, compared to 8.7% to 9.6% in urban areas under the same scenario. Many rural families depend on farming and other fuel-intensive activities, have fewer income-earning opportunities, and spend more on food.
Areas that are already poor—such as the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), the Visayas, Bicol, MIMAROPA, and parts of Mindanao—are expected to be hit the hardest.
Beyond the current scenario, the analysis outlines what could happen if the crisis worsens. If oil prices climb to USD 125 per barrel, up to 2.35 million Filipinos could fall into poverty. At USD 145 per barrel, the number could reach 3.50 million, with sharper increases in rural areas.
The projections show that the longer and deeper the shock, the more it pulls vulnerable households into poverty and widens inequality.
Given these uneven impacts, the policy note also examined how different policy responses affect households. It finds that blanket fuel subsidies tend to benefit higher-income households more, as they consume more fuel.
By contrast, the analysis shows that directing support toward poorer and near-poor households—those least able to absorb rising costs—is more responsive to the distributional impact of the shock.
These potential target groups include 4 million households already identified in social protection systems, 1.6 million eligible but currently uncovered families, and about 6.5 million vulnerable households outside existing lists, such as minimum-wage workers, persons with disabilities, and newly identified poor households.
Albert said that without timely and targeted intervention, the long-term effects could deepen.
“Kung biglang malugmok sa kahirapan [ang vulnerable groups], ‘yan ang mas magiging problema natin in the future,” he said.
The projections point to a clear risk: as fuel prices rise, poverty does not just increase—it spreads, pulling vulnerable families down and making recovery more difficult the longer the crisis persists.
Read more about "Who Suffers Most When Oil Prices Spike?" at and "The Middle Class and Vulnerability to Income Poverty: Implications for Social Protection in the Philippines" at .
Watch his full interview here: . ###
