How will the Philippine economy perform in 2026—and what role does election-year spending really play?
To open its 2026 public events, the òòò½´«Ã½ (òòò½´«Ã½) will host a public webinar on January 15, 2026, from 9:00 AM to 11:30 AM, via Zoom. The webinar will feature two recent òòò½´«Ã½ papers examining the country’s macroeconomic prospects for 2026 and the short-term economic effects of election-related spending.
The first study, “Macroeconomic Prospects of the Philippines in 2025-2026: Restoring Confidence amid Glocal Transitions,” by òòò½´«Ã½ Senior Research Fellow Dr. John Paolo R. Rivera, Research Specialist Ramona Maria L. Miral, and former Research Specialist Mark Gerald C. Ruiz, serves as the lead chapter of the òòò½´«Ã½ Economic Policy Monitor. It reviews economic performance in 2024 and 2025 and presents projections for 2026, assessing trends in growth, inflation, employment, and fiscal, external, and financial conditions amid a shifting global environment. The study highlights persistent vulnerabilities—including inflation volatility, exchange rate pressures, and fiscal constraints—and underscores the role of credible governance and sound macroeconomic management in restoring confidence as the country moves toward upper middle-income status.
The second study, “Election-Year Stimuli and Economic Performance: Evidence from a Macroeconometric Model of the Philippines,” by the same authors, analyzes how election-related spending shocks are transmitted through the economy. Using an augmented macroeconometric model, the study finds that election years generate short-term, demand-driven expansions driven by higher government and private spending, but these effects are largely temporary, with activity reverting toward baseline levels after elections. The paper points to the need for stronger institutions, fiscal transparency, and countercyclical policies to limit volatility and support long-term stability.
Interested participants may register at .
The event will also be livestreamed on the òòò½´«Ã½ and SERP-P Facebook pages.
Read the first study at .
